For Round Of 12 Field, Talladega Has The Chance To Throw A Monkey Wrench Into Playoff Aspirations

 When Bill France set out to build a racetrack that was both just a little bit wider & longer than Daytona, did he expect it to become what it is?

Did he expect Talladega Superspeedway, which put on arguably the worst debut in a NASCAR track's history, to be one of the most beloved(and hated) tracks by fans around the world?

Did he expect Talladega to become the party & pop culture capital for NASCAR, with movies, songs, & questionable activities all being tied into what is now known as NASCAR's biggest, baddest track?

Probably not. But it's all of those things and more, and this weekend, it plays host to the 5th race of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. 

If you're looking for stats for this weekend's race to give you a head start on picking or betting, here's one for you: William Byron is the only driver in the garage area, that, come Sunday, won't be putting down anxiety medication by the bottleful. Following Sunday's win at Texas, he's locked into the Round of 8, and even if misfortune befalls him Sunday, would be safe from elimination. 

The same can't be said for the 11 other drivers competing for a championship, even those like Denny Hamlin, who is 37 points above the cutline and has won at Talladega twice before, most recently in the infamous fall 2020 finish. 

For drivers like Martin Truex, Christopher Bell, and Chris Buescher, who are all at least 19 points above the elimination line, their fate is even more uncertain. In half a second, their points situation could go from comfortable to cut-line just like that. 

 Brad Keselowski and Kyle Larson, both of which are in the single digits in terms of gap to the cutline, should probably keep an emotional support dog nearby all weekend, and you can bet that dog will be exhausted from hearing their fears about taking on the Alabama high banks, especially Larson. 

While Keselowski has won many-a-times at Talladega, including both his first win in 2009 & his most recent win to date in 2021, Larson has had awful luck at both Talladega & Daytona, not yet coming close to a superspeedway victory in the Cup Series. 

Honestly, I might rather be below the cutline going to Talladega, maybe even in a must-win situation. 

Turns, out, that's exactly where Kyle Busch & Ryan Blaney both sit, at 17 and 11 points out respectively. While obviously not being in a mathematical must win scenario yet, it wouldn't hurt to get it done before going to the Charlotte Roval in a week and a half. Blaney has been the victor at Talladega twice, and nearly did it a third time last fall before barely getting edged out by Chase Elliott. Busch is the most recent Talladega winner, getting the victory over Blaney & Bubba Wallace, whose poor block on the final lap sent him into the wall. 

Speaking of Wallace, he's coming off an impressive run at Texas, where he nearly beat out Chase Briscoe and William Byron for the win, ultimately finishing 3rd and gaining 12 points on the cutline in a race where it was critical he did so. Talladega lines up well for him, however, as he got his first career win there in the fall of 2021, and nearly won again there in the aforementioned spring race. 

For Wallace's teammate Tyler Reddick, however, it's a whole different story. After a strong first round, including a win at Kansas, everything that could go wrong on Sunday did for Reddick, placing him 10th, 3 points below the cutline heading to Talladega. 

Like Larson, Reddick has never been proficient at drafting tracks, preferring a fast mile and a half where gripping the wall is the preferred method of speed. 

So, who should you pick to win this weekend? My advice is to collect 36 coins, write a driver's initials on them, then throw them up in the air and see which coin comes down last after all of the others have stopped flipping. It's a rather appropriate way to pick a winner, given Talladega's history of airborne automobiles. 

In all seriousness, however, here are my predictions for Sunday's Yellawood 500.

Win Pick: Chris Buescher. In a year of RFK resurgence, Buescher has been on fire lately, and while his teammate and boss will be a hot commodity for picks this weekend as well, Buescher won the last superspeedway race this year at Daytona. I've got him getting his fourth win of the season on Sunday. 

Backup Win Pick: Bubba Wallace. You thought I would say Brad or Blaney, didn't you? Bubba has had better speed lately, and despite the results not showing it this year, he's still been fast at drafting tracks, only being 3/4 of a lap away from winning at Talladega earlier in the season. 

Dark Horse: Chase Elliott. Not normally categorized as such, Elliott showed flashes of speed at Kansas but has been absent from contention in the other 3 Playoff races, Despite not fighting for a title this year, he is the defending winner of the race, though he'll have to go through several Playoff contenders to break his winless streak. 

Hopping On The Strugglebus: Kyle Larson. The Round of 12 is his kryptonite and always has been. In 2021, he had to win the Roval in order to move on. If Sunday goes how I think it will, he may have to do so again next Sunday, a feat he was unable to accomplish a year ago. 

The Yellawood 500 at Talladega takes place Sunday, October 1st at 2 PM ET on NBC, MRN, Sirius XM NASCAR Radio, and the NBC Sports App.